Turkey/Cyprus/Somalia – A brief update & analysis
The controversy triggered by new Somali Speaker Abdikadir Mohamed Nur aka Jama TikTok by implicitly endorsing the northern part of Cyprus – which calls itself Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) – as a sovereign state is not dying down, at least not any time soon.
And this despite the Somali MFA issuing a statement to clarify Somalia recognises only one Cyprus.
In fact, the row is taking on an intriguing dimension and bleeding into the wider geopolitical ferment in the Mediterranean and Red Sea arenas.
There is now a coordinated Turkish campaign to defend the Somali Speaker and even praise him for taking a bold principled stance.
Some even suggest Somalia owes it to Turkey to now join the Speaker and reverse its policy on Cyprus, extend formal recognition to TRNC.
Much more than being an inadvertent, genuine mistake, it now looks like Jama’s post was intended to trigger precisely what is now happening – a foreign policy debate on Somalia’s traditional position on Cyprus.
It is significant and not coincidental the issue is emerging at a time when Somalia and Turkey are marking 15 years of ‘strategic partnership.’
More importantly, it is generating significant friction inside the FGS.
Some Turkish posts on X are now directing their fire at MFA State Minister Ali Balcad and PM Hamza Barre – both alleged to have been behind pressure on Jama to delete the post acknowledging TRNC.
The two officials likely must have also come under pressure from Cyprus and European diplomats.
It took Somalia 4 days to formally respond and clarify its position on Cyprus. This is likely an indication of internal friction between the pro-Turkey camp who favour relations with TRNC and those who prefer Somalia to stay out of Cyprus and maintain tradition international consensus.
There are wider geopolitical factors driving Turkish calculations and campaign to seek more international recognition for TRNC.
Pro-Turkey groups claim or believe a strong Mogadishu-TRNC relationship reinforces the strategic partnership with Ankara and undercuts Israel-Somaliland ties.
They also claim it would pre-empt any attempt by Cyprus and Greece to extend formal recognition to Somaliland
Israel is a close ally of both Greece and Cyprus and the three states recently unveiled a new strategic alliance.
For Israel, Cyprus and Greece form part of its strategic Mediterranean periphery and TRNC – a territorial fragmentation of its ally – poses a major challenge.
The escalating Israel-Turkey rivalry in the wider Mediterranean/Levant theatre is now rapidly converging with the competition over the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.
Rashid Abdi
