Going to war with your own regional states is bad for any central state, any leader of a decentralised state.
There must be extreme and compelling reason to justify such a war.
Going to war with your own regional states when you are feeble, fragmented state and cannot project lethal power much beyond one city is sheer madness.
Mogadishu’s plan to seize control of Puntland in Aug 2026 falls apart just as its plan to seize control of Jubaland fell apart in Dec 2024.
Mogadishu’s electoral conquests in South West State and Galmudug do not signal a state that ‘stabilising’ the periphery. They demonstrate a state fomenting further fragmentation
A reminder of the old wisdom: Never go to war unless you are sure to win
Rashid Abdi
