Hay’adda International Crisis Group (ICG), ayaa shalay (10 November) baahisay warbixin ay ku falanqeeyeen xaaladda foosha xun ee Somaliland ka taagan, waxaanay cinwaan u ga dhigeen – Overcoming Somaliland’s Worsening Political Crisis – Xal-u-helidda Xaaladda ka sii daraysa ee siyaasadda Somaliland.
Si caam ah waxa ay u muujiyeen xaaladda Somaliland in ay meel xun marayso, murugsanaanta siyaasaddu na tahay mid la ga fursan karaayay oo aan Khasab ahayn. Shan ta qodob ee hoose ayaa ii gu la muhiimsanaa:
1. Bihi appears to believe that holding the presidential contest after the selection of new and potentially less experienced political parties augments his chances of staying in office.
(Doorashada madaxtooyada oo dib loo dhigo, la ga na soo horaysiiyo hanaan ay ku soo baxaan xisbiyo cusub, oo aan khibrad badan lahayn, Mr Biixi waxa uu u arkaa in ay fursaddiisa dib-u-doorashada kor u qaadayso.)
2. As a manifestation of their discontent, Garhajis elders have vowed to obstruct elections in their areas unless the three political parties find consensus regarding the electoral schedule.
(Iyaka oo muujinaaya ku qanacsanaan la’aantooda qorshaha socda, odayasha Garxajisku waxa ay ballan ku qaadeen, in aanay deegaamadooda ka dhacayn doorasho aanay saddexda xisbi heshiis ku ahayn.) Fiiro gaar ah: halkaas waxa ay ICG ka ilaaween xog ah, beelaha kale ee waddanku na waa ku raaceen go’aankooda kaas ah.
3. Somaliland’s system does not account for a scenario in which the political parties vote is organised separately from local council elections.
(Nidaamka doorashooyinka ee Somaliland, ma ogola qaab lagu dooran karo xisbiyo keliya oo aanay la socon doorasho golayaal deegaan.)
4. In late September, the National Election Commission said it needed nine months to organise the presidential poll, which would cause it to slip into 2023. Rather than follow the commission’s guidance, the Guurti extended the government’s mandate by two years, pushing the presidential vote to November 2024. Nonetheless, government said will strive to abide by the commission’s timeline, but it remains uncertain if this commitment is sincere.
(Aakhirkii bishii September, Guddiga Doorashooyinku waxa ay caddeeyeen in sagaal bilood gudahood ay ku qaban karaan doorashada madaxtooyada, taas oo keenaysay in sanadka 2023 ay dhexdiisa dhacdo. Si kastaba, qolada Guurtida la yidhaahdo oo ay ahayd in ay sameeyaan muddo kordhin ku salaysan wakhtiga Gudigga Doorashooyinku dalbadeen, ayaa is ka baal maray, oo xukuumadda u kordhiyay laba sanno, taas oo tilmamaysa in doorashadu u dhacayso November 2024. Sidaas oo ay tahay, dawladdu waxa ay sheegtay in ay ku dadaalayso ku socoshada wakhtiga sagaalka bilood ah ee Gudiga Doorashadu cayimeen, laakiin ballanqaadkaasi in uu daacad yahay iyo in kale la ma hubo.)
5. The political dispute in Somaliland is veering close to the point of spinning out of control, but there is still time to avert a worst-case scenario.
(Xaaladda khilaafaadka siyaasadeed ee Somaliland waxa ay aad u gu dhowdahay heerkii faro-ka-baxa, laakiin weli waxa la haystaa wakhti la gu abuuro xal lagaga baaqsan karo in ta u gu darani dhacdo. Bulshada caalamka waxa la gudboon in ay dhinacyada ku cadaadiyaan sidii loo gu soo noqon lahaa dhaqan-siyaasadeedkii isu tanasulka iyo is ogolaaanshaha, oo aanu dhinacna ku adkaysan in uu tiisa u gaarka ah is ka ga cayuuqo.)
Fiiro gaar ah: Halkan ay dhinacyada leeyihiin, dabcan cidda ergo-diidka iyo xal diidka ah waa ogyihiin, qoraalka dhexdiisa ayayna ku sheegeen in dadaalkii odayaasha iyo ganacsatadu midho bixin waayay. Sidaas darted, cidda ay leeyihiin ha la qabto waa is ka caddahay, oo in ay farta ku fiiqaan ma u baahnayn.
U gu dambayn, waxa ii muuqata qolada ICG in loo qori doono waraaq ah in aan wadanka la ga jeclayn, oo ay cadowga la shaqeeyaan.
