Insight about the Nov 13 elections
81%
Turn out 24
Region Ciro best
Ciro % Muse 24 % Muse Ciro increment Registeration Voters 2024
Maroodi-jeex 174443 40% 240332 56% 50% 497734 433029
Togdheer 137649 71% 65343 34% 90% 236279 193749
Burco 102039 68% 55058 37% 90% 183354 150350
Oodweyne 32456 102% 2453 8% 100% 38873 31876
Buuhoodle 4570 40% 6462 56% 50% 14052 11523
Awdal 103881 72% 52794 37% 90% 181801 143623
Borama 86615 79% 37555 34% 90% 138458 109382
Saylac 10875 54% 9292 46% 50% 25680 20287
Lughaya 5849 42% 7438 53% 50% 17663 13954
Baki 2510 0% -3593 0% 90%
Sanaag 66352 79% 24371 29% 90% 119648 83754
Cerigabo 46413 93% 11191 22% 90% 71562 50093
Ceel-Afweyn 10842 73% 4572 31% 50% 21224 14857
Gar-Adag 7165 62% 5548 48% 50% 16547 11583
Badhan 3491 68% 1279 25% 90% 7386 5170
Dhahar 0 0% 0 0% 50% 2929 2050
Taleex -269 0% -2426 0% 90%
Sahil 30263 41% 48498 65% 50% 92620 74096
Sool 16883 52% 20318 62% 50% 50105 32568
Total 537177 56% 448196 47% 50% 1178187 960818
993K
Voters 2024
56%
Ciro vote
10%
Wining vote
148%
% Ciro must add 17
Region Ciro best case
Muse 2024 worst % Muse 24 % Ciro 24 % Muse % Abdirahman Voters 2024
Maroodi-jeex 174443 240332 56% 40% 60.0% 29.1% 433029
Togdheer 137649 65343 34% 71% 47.7% 49.2% 193749
Awdal 103881 52794 37% 72% 47.2% 50.3% 143623
Sanaag 66352 24371 29% 79% 46.8% 49.8% 83754
Sool 40040 36020 56% 62% 53.8% 43.3% 64328
Sahil 30263 48498 65% 41% 64.2% 33.8% 74096
Total 560621 463156 47% 56% 54.1% 40.0% 992578
523K
Increment
261K
Ciro new voters
Must win districts for Ciro
0K 50K 100K 150K
Must win district
District
Burco
Borama
Cerigabo
Oodweyne
Caynabo
Saylac
Bali-Gubadle
Salahley
Sheekh
Lughaya
150K
109K
50K
32K
23K
20K
18K
15K
14K
14K
Wining vote distributed across districts for ciro
-50% 0% 50% 100%
% 24 Wining vote
District
Oodweyne
Cerigabo
Xudun
Borama
Badhan
Ceel-Afweyn
Burco
Taleex
Salahley
Gar-Adag
Saylac
Sheekh
Bali-Gubadle
Hargeisa
Lughaya
Caynabo
Buuhoodle
Berbera
Gabiley
94%
70%
56%
45%
43%
42%
31%
28%
22%
14%
8%
3%
-2%
-6%
-11%
-12%
-16%
-33%
-63%
41%
Muse must lose
Ciro must minimize the loss of the districts
0K
50K
100K
150K
200K
250K
300K
District
Must minimize ciro
Hargeisa Gabiley Ceel-Afweyn Gar-Adag
322K
77K
15K 12K 226K
Abdirahman
335K
Ciro added 17
261K
Ciro grab new voters
