Suddenly, everything is about a tiny, unrecognized state that few will ever have heard of: Somaliland. The fate of this piece of geopolitical real estate is now tied up with everything from Israel’s war on Gaza to the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, and quite a few geopolitical centers of activity in between the two.
The fact that a UK former defense minister is spreading rumors that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump will officially recognize Somaliland, a strategic breakaway region of Somalia that sits on the Red Sea, is only one of many dominoes falling around this tiny would-be nation.
In 1991, Somalia, a former British protectorate, claimed independence from Somalia, and it’s survived more or less quietly since then–until its strategic positioning on the Red Sea made it a prized possession of high-level geopolitical consequence.
Turkey’s been milling around it for ages, already, with Erdogan always spotting opportunities well in advance. But Turkey’s game is to shore up its power in Somalia, not Somaliland, and its strategy is a broader one: to pre-insert itself in various situations that position it to have a strong enough business foothold and act as an indispensable mediator and power broker (like in Libya). Ethiopia and Somalia are fighting over it. Turkey and Greece are fighting over it. Egypt, too, has some skin in this game, as does Israel, which is looking for some prime real estate to safely bomb the Houthis from.
Everyone wants a piece of Somaliland these days. And it’s attracting a lot of money for its port, including from Ethiopia and the UAE, which makes neighboring Somalia and its increasingly influential benefactor (Turkey) nervous. The port deal with Dubai then attracted money from Ethiopia–a landlocked neighbor desperate to get a foothold on the coast. The January 2024 port deal raised tensions exponentially, to the point of questioning Somalia’s sovereignty as its breakaway region began to gain more power than Somalia proper. The port deal came with a quid pro quo that went beyond money. The deal, which for now remains an MOU, would allow Ethiopia its coveted Red Sea port lease and would give Somaliland official recognition. This puts Somalia dangerously at odds with Ethiopia because it’s a question of sovereignty.
And with the battle against Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, Somaliland’s value has just soared. Not only does the previously unassuming breakaway region have an impressive Gulf of Aden coast, but it’s also right at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait–the key target of the Houthis that sees over 30% of all seaborne world trade. Many have already been using Somaliland’s coast via proxy, in neighboring Djibouti, where the Who’s Who of foreign powers already have military bases. The same is true for Eritrea. But it’s Somaliland that is the core of the coastal power game.
Turkey’s meddling is also escalating things. Turkey’s energy exploration deals with Somalia will see it deploy Turkish Naval forces in a maritime zone that both Somalia and Somaliland claim. Somaliland has already warned Turkey against such a move. Turkey, ever playing the role of beneficial mediator, is pushing for direct negotiations between Somalia and Somaliland, but if Ankara oversteps, we could see a major response from Somaliland and possibly its allies.
As this competition for Somaliland continues to intensify–and it will–it risks becoming the next hot spot conflict involving very clear groups of foreign enemies and allies.
Source Oilprice
