The escalating clash between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia now threatens to ignite the already tense rivalry between Israel and Turkey in the Horn of Africa. This week, Turkey threw its military weight behind Saudi Arabia, while Somaliland – a self-declared state recognised only by Israel – is urgently seeking Israeli military support.
Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia, is calling on Israel to provide military hardware. “We need air defence systems,” Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign affairs adviser to Somaliland’s president, said in a Middle East Eye interview this month.
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi made a similar request last month for Israeli military support.
Last December, Israel became the first nation to recognise Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991. Because of its close ties to Israel, Somaliland now fears it could become a target for the Houthis, who operate from Yemen just across the Gulf of Aden and have previously targeted Israel.
“The Houthi threat is growing; it’s a major issue,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
“Access to the Red Sea and Somaliland’s location just across from Yemen are very important, and I think this is where Israel recognises that it’s difficult to deal with the threat only from afar, and it’s important to have allies in the Horn of Africa,” she added.
Israel, which is in the midst of an election campaign ahead of the 27 October vote, has not commented on the request. But Lindenstrauss predicts a favourable response. “Obviously, if you look at the location, there should be some military support,” she said.
Turkey’s backing for Somalia
Yet Somaliland’s call for military aid is fuelled by more than just anxiety over the Houthis. Somalia’s government is still intent on reclaiming Somaliland, branding it a rogue state. At the same time, Turkey has stepped up its military support for Somalia, deploying F-16s and advanced drones in January, and running its largest overseas military base to train Somali troops.
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“Turkey has strong defence cooperation with Somalia; Somaliland sees that as an issue for them. It sees them as a potential future threat down the road. And so that’s why they’re calling for Israeli security support,” explained Horn of Africa analyst Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.
“I think what’s happening is both sides, Somalia and Somaliland, are drawing external actors into their local dispute,” added Mahmood. “So it’s elevating what has been an unresolved but a local dispute for quite some time into something broader, something more regional.”
Tensions between Turkey and Israel have also been mounting, fuelled by Israel’s ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon and Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas. Both nations now see each other as an increasing threat.
“There is a security dilemma evolving between Turkey and Israel,” warns Lindenstrauss. “What Turkey does for its security, Israel sees as threatening. What Israel does for its defences in [Syria] is seen as threatening.”
Soli Ozel, an expert on Turkey at the Institut Montaigne in France, warns that because Somalia holds such strategic value for Turkey, any Israeli military involvement in Somaliland could dangerously escalate the situation.
“They may consider the deployment of Israeli missiles in Somaliland another destabilising factor,” said Ozel. “But I don’t think that the F-16s or the drones would be used against Somaliland, honestly; at least for the moment, I wouldn’t expect that to happen.”
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Containment, not conflict
Ozel argues that while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are trading increasingly bellicose rhetoric, both countries are engaged in a high-stakes battle of containment rather than conflict.
“The theatrics and the realities of Turkish-Israeli relations may not be exactly the same,” explained Ozel. “I don’t think they will fight, but they are both showing their colours, right? Israel sent missiles to Somaliland; the Turks send F-16s and drones in order to set limits to what the other party will do.”
Turkey is preparing to expand its military footprint in the region. This week, Turkey and Pakistan pledged armed support to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August, a pact binding the three nations to mutual defence.
While the specifics remain unclear, Lindenstrauss notes that despite rising friction between Turkey and Israel, both countries may still find common cause in confronting the Houthis.
“I think the recognition that the Houthis are not something that is seen as only Israel’s problem, and it’s not just a minor proxy of Iran, but it’s a major problem that many states have to join together to deal with. I think that’s actually good news,” said Lindenstrauss.
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Yet Mahmood cautions that as clashes in the Red Sea escalate, Israel’s possible deployment of military hardware to Somaliland points to a worrying new trend.
“Horn actors need to realise that while they’re inviting external actors in to support their own ambitions locally, to get one step over their political adversaries, they risk turning their theatre into a wider proxy battleground. And so certainly, I think there’s a risk that those types of tensions can spill over,” he warned.
