Serious buildup of troops and hardware on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
There have been sustained external pressure, principally the United States in the last 24 hours, to stop the almost inexorable slide toward full-blown war.
The massing of large rival forces along a volatile border is always dangerous even when order for invasion not given.
The risk of an accidental war – an escalated artillery duel quickly sparking bigger conflict – is significally elevated.
There is also the fatal war calculations of the two sides.
Both sides have an incentive for escalation – PM Abiy is under immense pressure from his core base to press his current advantage while his army has the initiative and the upper hand in the north to finish the ‘Eritrea problem’ once and for all.
Asmara, fully supported and possibly instigated by Egypt, calculates Ethiopa is too weakened, battling large internal armed insurrections, fighting on multiple fronts, and lacking the strength to take on Eritrea.
Moving against Addis now, with active support from TPLF factions, possibly with support from other rebel groups like Fano and OLA, is from Asmara’s perspective advantageous.
Rashid Abdi
