A geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa may expose the region and its tightly interconnected regional security complex to the Iran war, analysts say.

They note that escalating rivalry between countries often aligned with Saudi Arabia or Turkey on one side, and countries aligned with the UAE and Israel on the other. Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, for example has become a flashpoint.

Iran strategy shapes regional risks

Moses Chrispus Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa, says there is a high risk of escalation in Somaliland, where Israel and the UAE have interests. He says tensions could also rise in neighboring Djibouti, where the US and other powers are active.

Okello noted that, although the Tehran‑aligned Houthi group in Yemen has not engaged in the US-Israel war with Iran thus far, any further escalation in the Middle East heightens the likelihood of their involvement.

“But they have historically indicated that any friend of Israel is an enemy. Therefore, in a way we could say that even if they are quiet, it doesn’t preclude the fact that they might very easily reactivate their activity,” he explained.

Okello also pointed out that religious dynamics might influence the Houthis’ calculations, noting that most Muslims in Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti are predominantly Sunni, while the Houthis are of Shia background.

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025 was criticized by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who said “any Israeli presence in Somaliland is considered by our armed forces to be a military target,” according to the DPA news agency.

Priyal Singh, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, however, believes that Somaliland features in Israel’s much longer-term geopolitical ambitions for the region.

“I don’t foresee any kind of hard security cooperation between Somaliland and Israel in the immediate term just because of how fluid and dynamic the situation with Iran is at the moment,” he told DW.

Okello suggested that if Israel boosts its security presence in Somaliland, it could lead to renewed tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. A previous dispute over a 2024 Memorandum of Understanding saw Ethiopia try to gain access to the Red Sea and its major trade routes in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland.

He argued Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has deepened ties between Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE, which, he said, naturally isolates and concerns Mogadishu.

“If Israel increases its activity and links it up with other relations involving Ethiopia and Abu Dhabi, you can see at least an expansion of the theater of conflict,” he told DW.