The Mecca Agreement, a trilateral collective defense agreement among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, has altered South Asia’s threat landscape. Pakistan and its terror proxies are no longer bilateral or regional headaches for India; Pakistan’s strengthened diplomatic heft in the Middle East, growing footprint in Bangladesh alongside Turkey, and its robust ties with Beijing have made it a behemoth with widespread networks of state and non-state actors, magnifying India’s security challenges.
[Somaliland] occupies a strategic location astride the Gulf of Aden, not far south of the Bab el-Mandeb … connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.
India needs to counter Pakistan’s machinations by building broad strategic alliances with like-minded state and non-state actors. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Hexagon Alliance, a six-nation grouping of Israel, India, Greece, United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, and Somaliland, could emerge as a powerful bloc against the emerging Sunni Axis. However, the proposed network remains more theoretical than real. India, though, could take the lead by formally recognizing Somaliland.
Somaliland, which formally won independence in 1960 before it voluntarily joined a union with Somalia five days later, reasserted its independence in 1991, but did not receive outside recognition for its move. It occupies a strategic location astride the Gulf of Aden, not far south of the Bab el-Mandeb, the global maritime chokepoint connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Its deepwater Port of Berbera can both provide services for the world’s busiest shipping routes and support military efforts to counter the Houthis. While not initially envisioned as such, Somaliland can be a crucial anchor for the India-Middle East Economic Corridor and could also enable Indian commerce to better penetrate Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country.
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On April 18, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit Indian commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. India cannot continue to live in a fantasy in which New Delhi considers Tehran a friend. While New Delhi may believe it is walking a tightrope, Tehran perceives India firmly in the U.S.-Israel camp. On August 4–5, 2026, Houthis attacked the Indian-flagged Faize Noore Oliya, sinking the ship. Though the crew members, including 13 Indian nationals, survived, India’s ships will likely face more lethal Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. About 20 to 35 percent of India’s foreign trade relies on the Suez Canal-Red Sea route; hence, Somaliland is crucial to securing maritime routes. Additionally, Somali piracy, a major threat to Indian shipping, has resurged due to the ongoing security crisis in the Red Sea. In August 2026, Somali pirates captured two Indian vessels, holding 22 Indian nationals captive. India can partner with Somaliland to neutralize the piracy threat.
As Africa develops into a hotbed of great-power contestation and non-state actors, India must increase its outreach in Africa. India’s rivals—China, Pakistan and Turkey—have made inroads in Africa. Somaliland can help India counter the Chinese economic influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Djibouti, Kenya and Tanzania.
If India is concerned about Somalia’s reaction to its recognition of Somaliland, then New Delhi must remember that its major adversaries have close ties with Somalia. Turkish advisors train Somali security forces and provide defense, space, humanitarian, and development support to Somalia in exchange for a foothold along a key global maritime route. Pakistan also strengthened its strategic ties with Mogadishu in August 2026, signing a broad defense agreement. On Kashmir, though Somalia does not support Pakistan, it aligns with the stance of the Organization of Islamic Countries, which is antagonistic to India. Further, Pakistan’s terrorist group Harkat-ul-Mujahidin, known for its terror activities in Kashmir, nurtured links with Al Ittihad Al Islamia, Al Qaeda’s East Africa affiliate in the early 1990s.
Several Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates have increased their footprint and threaten weak and corrupt local governments.
Additionally, Africa is a new hub of transnational jihadist organizations. Several Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates have increased their footprint and threaten weak and corrupt local governments. Pakistan-supported terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad have robust ties with transnational jihadists in Africa. They can leverage these connections and use African soil as a base to threaten India’s national security.
Seldom are their magic formulas in international relations, but it would be malpractice to ignore certain opportunities when they emerge. Somaliland and India share common history with both British rule and India Ocean trade relations. Both embrace the rules-based order and democracy. If India really is to take its rightful place in the twenty-first century, it must stop being passive or deferring to its adversaries and instead take initiative. Recognizing Somaliland would be a good place to start.
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