File picture: Saudi Defence Minister meets Houthi delegation in Riyadh (September 20, 2023 – SPA)
Four years of a fragile truce shattered this week following rapid escalation in tit-for-tat strikes between KSA and the Houthi movement in Yemen.
First, Saudi Air Force struck San’a airport runway to block a senior Houthi delegation returning from Tehran from landing.
The delegation included men deemed by Saudis to have been working against their interests.
The Houthis struck back targeting an airport in Abha, Saudi Arabia.
The truce is still reparable. Likely both sides prefer the status quo than a return to full-scale conflict.
A flare-up in its southern flank when it also facing missile barrages from Iran, is an outcome Riyadh will work to avoid.
The Saudis struggled for years to defeat the Houthis without success.
KSA cannot contain the Houthis on its own and certainly not via airstrikes alone.
Another ground invasion is out of the question for a variety reasons.
The big question now is whether Israel and KSA might cooperate tactically to degrade the Houthis since both have an interest in seeing the Iran-backed group crippled.
A difficult proposition, a remote prospect for now, but still impossible to rule out.
If that happens, Somaliland could be the unlikely beneficiary.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland was partly linked to its need for a regional outpost to monitor and fight the Houthis more effectively.
A Saudi-Israel cooperation to degrade the Houthis – as fanciful/unlikely as it may sound – can only work if Houthis are squeezed from all flanks in a systematic and sustained way, especially from the southern flank.
If that happens, would Saudi Arabia dial down the anti-Somaliland recognition rhetoric and campaign?
From a purely national security and military strategic point of view, Saudia Arabia needs Somaliland more than it needs Mogadishu.
Rashid Abdi
@RAbdianalyst
