EPC Report Sees Ethiopia-Somaliland Maritime Cooperation Deepening Despite Recognition Hurdles
Economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland is likely to expand in the coming years, even as formal diplomatic recognition remains unlikely in the near term, according to a new analysis published by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC).
The report, Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland, argues that Ethiopia’s long-standing search for diversified sea access and Somaliland’s ambition to strengthen its regional economic role are creating conditions for closer cooperation centred on Berbera Port.
According to the Abu Dhabi-based think tank, practical commercial collaboration is currently a more realistic outcome than any agreement involving formal recognition. The analysis says Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on Djibouti for maritime trade has increased interest in developing alternative logistics corridors.
It identifies Berbera Port as an increasingly strategic gateway that could help reduce supply chain risks, improve trade resilience and strengthen Ethiopia’s connectivity to international markets as competition over Red Sea shipping routes intensifies.
According to the report, Somaliland is also adopting a more pragmatic approach by prioritising trade, logistics and infrastructure partnerships over immediate diplomatic recognition. The EPC argues that positioning Berbera as a reliable commercial hub could generate greater long-term economic value than pursuing political recognition alone.
The report identifies three possible scenarios for future relations. It considers the most likely outcome to be a gradual expansion of cooperation in areas such as trade, transport infrastructure and port services without changing Somaliland’s political status.
A second, less likely scenario envisages negotiations leading to long-term maritime arrangements that could eventually support broader political agreements, while a third foresees continued political deadlock despite Ethiopia’s persistent demand for sea access.
Despite the economic opportunities, the analysis notes that several challenges continue to limit deeper cooperation, including Somaliland’s lack of international recognition, Somalia’s opposition to bilateral agreements involving Hargeisa, and the diplomatic commitments contained in the Ankara Declaration between Ethiopia and Somalia.
According to the EPC, developments surrounding Berbera Port extend beyond bilateral relations and could influence regional trade corridors, investment flows, Red Sea maritime security and economic integration across the Horn of Africa. The report concludes that future progress will largely depend on whether economic interests can be advanced while navigating the region’s complex political and diplomatic landscape.
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